Lease Analysis Introduction - eBay Stores

Lease Analysis Introduction - eBay Stores

Lease Analysis Introduction By Norm Miller University of San DIego [email protected] Introduction to Leases A lease is a legal contract between a tenant (lessee) and landlord (lessor) Specifies the rights and obligations of the owner and user A lease divides the bundle of rights in real estate into two interests Owners Leased Fee Interest Tenants Leasehold Estate Requirements of a Valid Commercial Lease Names of owners & tenants with authority to contract Description of property

Consideration (deposit or something of value) Legality of leased space (building and zoning code compliance, etc.) Offer and acceptance of the contract Lease analysis may intersect with Corp Site analysis: employer needs CEO, Key Partner and Employee access Client access, co-tenants Government incentives or regulations Parking needs Amenities Other factors that will vary for industrial (power, truck, rail, multimodal hubs), or retail (market and access dominate, signage, and lighting). Lease Perspectives Vary Landlord Maximize Net Present Value

Support Financing with highest quality tenant credit Minimize parking required Synergize tenants (retail) so as to maximize productivity Understand tenants business Shift operating expenses to tenant if possible (there are exceptions) Diversify expiration risk by term and tenant size as % of property (Retail) Local flavor and diversity? Renewals at market or close to it Tenant

Minimize net present value of lease Minimize total occupancy costs Minimize unexpected pass through expenses or significant increases Minimize up front costs (in some cases) Maximize flexibility and the need to expand, downsize, exit when desired with the least possible penalties (using options) Renew on favorable terms Key lease types

Triple net lease or absolute net lease: Tenant pays everything, even M&R, typical on retail and industrial, esp single tenant properties. Industrial gross Tenant pays CAM, increases in PI and PT over base Modified gross or Hybrid Tenant pays CAM, PI, PT, and Utilities, possibly Janitorial Gross lease Tenant may pay metered interior utilities, may pay interior cleaning Landlord pays everything else Full Service lease: landlord pays everything Key: Must carefully define anything in between Triple net and full service! Terms vary by market and what is typical varies by market. Subleases

A tenant typically has the right to sublease space unless noted otherwise. Often the landlord will have some right to refuse sub-lease tenants but must be reasonable in accommodating requests. Subleases do not eliminate the tenants (lessee) requirement to guarantee the rent is paid, unless the landlord releases the tenant and then it is no longer a sublease. Defining the space Building Measurements Term Measure Definition and Use Gross Building Area

Gross Square Feet (gsf) or GBA Includes all enclosed area Total Rentable Area Rentable Building Area or RBA Gross less vertical penetrations (i.e. stairs, elevator shafts) Common Area aka Area shared by all Core Space at CoStar tenants

Common areas of the floor like hallways, bathrooms. Building Common Area % (CoStar Core Factor) Aka Load factor or Loss Factor Floor and Building Common area relative to Rentable Area Common area use of the building (does not include vertical penetrations) Efficiency Ratio

Ratio of RBA to GBA More efficiency means more rent per GBA but less architectural interest and less common space. Rentable, Usable and Common Space Not Rentable Usable Commo n B Elevators

Lobby Bath Storage Bath Hall Stairwell Hall C Core or Load Factor Rentable Usable 1 Load factor or loss factor

Calculate the load factor: A Landlord quotes 22,000 SF of Rentable space with 20,000 SF of Usable. Calculate the the load-factor. 22,000 = 1.10 -11 or 10% load 20,000 Efficiency Ratio Rentable Gross ER 20,000 = 86.95% 23,000 Sometimes defined as useable over rentable by

IFMA Commercial Leases Commercial leases can be gross full service leases or triple net leases. Most multi-tenant buildings use some sort of net lease, but single tenant buildings are more likely to be triple net. Most Common Gross Lease Net Lease where we pay see some pass through items (i.e. property taxes and insurance) Triple or

Absolute Net Lease Key rent clauses Base rent (flat, indexed, graduated) Measured space (RBA, defined by BOMA) Percentage or Overage rent and break point sales Tenant improvements (who pays, how much, removal, how generic, work letters, who does the work) Lease term (commences, renewals, cancellation, penalties) How indexed? If at all, peer group defined if market based Options to renew, move, expand, contract or downsize. Parking allowances (free, paid, utilization) Lighting and power use Operating expenses, maintenance and repair expenses Non-disturbance Deposits and guarantees, Authority to modify Many others depending on market and property type

What are the operating expenses? CAM (Common area expenses: defined) Maintenance defined so as not to include capital improvements without approval. i.e. Janitorial, cleaning supplies, landscaping, snow removal, sweeping, etc. Security Property Taxes Property Insurance Sewer and water, utilities, trash removal, credits for recycling salvage Management (?) and admin charges on pass throughs. For retail there are many more, i.e. advertising and marketing

fees, events and specialty promotions Key Proforma considerations Forecasting rents starts with the rent roll Vacancies are then considered based on: Current property vacancy Market vacancy for peer set Probability of lease renewal Type of tenant, size, tenant improvements Time to re-lease is a critical assumption and often runs years not months Lease commissions and renewals must be factored in. Every lease must be part of a detailed lease by lease proforma so that stops and caps can be considered for operating expenses that may be paid by landlord. Sometimes the discount rate for DCF analysis can vary by tenant risk weight in the rent roll. Tenant retention is a marketing and management art.

Keep in mind the need to segment market by quality, location and tenant size Lease Terms Have Been Declining In General with some recent uptick Note: FASB rules encourage shorter lease terms for public corporations that must capitalize leases as liabilities on the balance sheets Wtd. Avg. Lease Term in Years 11 10 9 8 7 6 2010Q2

2010Q1 2009Q4 2009Q3 2009Q2 2009Q1 2008Q4 2008Q3 2008Q2 2008Q1 2007Q4

2007Q3 2007Q2 2007Q1 2006Q4 2006Q3 2006Q2 2006Q1 2005Q4 2005Q3

2005Q2 2005Q1 2004Q4 2004Q3 2004Q2 2004Q1 2003Q4 2003Q3 2003Q2 2003Q1

2002Q4 2002Q3 2002Q2 2002Q1 2001Q4 2001Q3 2001Q2 2001Q1 4

2000Q4 5 How long does it take to re-lease Class A office space? (as of Oct 24, 2013 CoStar Data) Atlanta 34.7 months Boston 26.5 months Detroit 49.6 months San Francisco 22.8 months

What affects the probability of renewal? Below market rent adjustment based on a fixed or modest increase. Financial distress of tenant as indicated by high space per worker (downsizing) The level of TI invested by the tenant or the customization of the space. Size of tenant. Age of tenant business and if they have renewed before. Proactive management. Asking them if they are happy? What are the contentious negotiation issues for all leases?

Prorating formulas for pass-throughs The right to audit for tenant or landlord Caps on specific expense items or totals per year Capital improvements vs maintenance and repair Questionable operating expenses like accounting, legal, memberships, travel, data maintenance and data backup. Assignment of lease space, sublet rights, signage. Acts of nature: fire, flood, earthquake, or crimes and required responses by each. Mold and toxic materials on site. Enforcement mechanisms on any issues of dispute (arbitration, LOC, termination penalties) Other issues vary by property type Office Key Issues

Lease term and options to renew Base rent adjustment formulas (i.e. PPI, CPI, % of CPI, Fixed rates, mins, maxes by year or term and time period used to determine) Lease renewals at market (how defined, when determined) TI (tenant improvements) and how spent, access to site, whos contractors used, free rent, access prior to lease starting date, indemnity from TI work issues. Parking may or may not be a key issue depending on site use intensity Cleaning timing, lights, recycling, LEED requirements. Removal of electronics and wireless equipment Others? Exclusive floor, exclusive elevators, signage? Green leases address LEED and ES and all issues related to maintaining a green building. Note the GSA must lease only ES buildings and buy only LEED Silver or better. Retail

Right to go dark Right to terminate, move, expand, contract Right to lease in nearby sites (radius restrictions) Break point sales, if any Percentage of sales for overage and excluded items Exclusive merchandise clauses and enforcement mechanisms Contingency to terminate based on certain anchors not going dark or percentage of total center operating (Cotenancy) Remedies when rogue tenants violate lease clauses Industrial In addition to those in the office list, add Power availability and K-watts

Power back up Water and sewer access Hazardous substances on site and handling Who gets benefits of green house gas credits, if any? The Building Block of Investment Value Begins With the Tenant and Lease The value of a building is primarily the summed value of the net productivity of leased space, as now constrained by lease contracts and as affected by operating expenses, market trends and longer term prospects. If each stone is the size of the tenant, which stack is riskier? Economics of Lease Analysis The pattern of the cash flow matters to both the landlord and tenant and requires some way to compare leases. Which of Ren

these leases is best for the landlord? t Tenant? A B C Time Types of Lease Financial Analysis 1. The net present value of the lease for the entire period of the lease 2. The lease costs per period on a level average basis (note many brokers incorrectly call this effective rent) 3. The total dollar outflow or to be received 4. The net present value of the lease per square

foot 5. The effective level rent payment or Effective Annualized Rent or Annuitized Lease Value : Once the present value of the rent is calculated it can be converted to the mathematically equivalent present value flow based on a steady annual or monthly flow of level payments. Annuitized Rent Per Square Foot allows you to adjust for different sizes. Effective Rent Calculation for the landlord CF2 CF3 LPV =CF1 + ------ + 1+k (1+k)2 CFt -------- + .....+ --------(1+k)t-1

CF is the net cash flow received after all periodic operating expenses, usually paid at the beginning of the period. CF1 is the net cash flow to the landlord at the beginning of the lease in month 1 While CFt is the net cash flow in the last month of the lease at time t. From the tenant perspective the cash flow is not the net received but the total paid. K is the discount rate used to bring the cash flows back to present value. k(LPV) this present value to a level annuity like a flat payment as Last we convert follows: Effective Rent per period = -----------------------(1+k)[1 - 1/(1+k)T] This could be monthly or annual. Confusing? Try a visual example Rent Pattern is converted to an equivalent flat payment for the entire lease period.

Period 1 2 3 4 5 TI = $25 PSFT No rent Free rent Rent $40 PSF Rent $50 PSF

Rent $60 PSF $40 $50 $60 -$25 Effective Rent Annual Calculation using 10% discount rate = $20.77 Could you guess at $20.77 from the above pattern or compare to another leas with a different pattern? That is why we need the calculation, so we can comp Leases. Note: discount rates need not be the same for landlords and tenants.

One more time: Annuitized or Effective Rent Calculation Procedure Step 1) Calculate the Lease Present Value, LPV, as described earlier (monthly or annual) using beginning of period payments Step 2) Calculate the Annuitized Value ("Level Annuity Payment") of the LPV where "k" is the same discount rate as above, and "T" is again the term of the lease Numerical Example of Effective Rent per Sq Ft Calculation Lease "A": Term: 5 years Rent: $20/SF, net Concessions: 1 year free rent, up front

Effective Rent Calculation (Contd.) Lease B": Term: 6 years Rent: $25/SF, net Concessions: 2 years free rent, up front Landlord would prefer Lease A over Lease B, even though lease B has a higher future "nominal rent" ($25/SF vs. $20/SF) but there may be circumstances when B is preferred, when? The tenant would generally prefer Lease B

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